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Abstract


THE CASUALİTY RELATİONSHİP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATİON RATES AN EMPRİCAL RESEARCH: THE CASE OF TURKEY

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between inflation and exchange rate firstly in a theoretical framework and then to analyze the causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation for the period 2003-2018. The increase in inflation as a result of data acquisition and foreign exchange attacks in 2017-2018 was effective in the selection of this period. Therefore, there was a need to analyze with updated prices. For this purpose, monthly data were used and real exchange rates and inflation variables were analyzed. Philips Perron (PP) unit root tests were used in the analysis. After the stationarity of the series was tested, the analysis was continued with the Granger causality test. As a result of the analysis, a unidirectional relationship was found between the variables. In other words, while there is a causal relationship from Real Exchange Rates to CPI, there is no causal relationship from CPI to Real Exchange Rates. It is thought that the subject will be useful for academic researchers and policy makers.



Keywords
Exchange Rate, Inflation, Causality Test.



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